Severe Flooding in the Atoll Nations of Tuvalu and Kiribati Triggered by a Distant Tropical Cyclone Pam

Tropical cyclone (TC) Pam formed in the central south Pacific early March 2015. It reached a category 5 severity and made landfall or otherwise directly impacted several islands Vanuatu, causing widespread damage loss of life. then moved along southerly track between Fiji New Caledonia, generating wind-waves up to approximately 15 m, before exiting region around 15th. The resulting swell propagated throughout Pacific, flooding communities Tuvalu, Kiribati Wallis Futuna, all over 1,000 km from TC Pam’s track. these remote impacts was not anticipated poorly forecasted. In this study, we use total water level (TWL) approach estimate climatological conditions factors contributing recorded at Tuvalu Kiribati. At many islands, estimated TWL associated with largest within ?40-year period available data, although necessarily terms wave setup runup; elevated regional sea-level also contributed TWL. westerly direction likely severity, as did locally exceptional storm-swell event’s long duration; overall timing duration event modulated by astronomical tides. findings study give impetus development, implementation and/or improvement warning systems capable predicting such reef-island flooding. They have direct implications for more accurate flood hazard analyses context changing climate, which is crucial informing adaptation policies atolls Pacific.